Pokemon Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates

by | Pokemon Cards

Mega Greninja ex #122 Mega Hyper Rare

Pokemon collectors studying Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates usually want to know how many packs it may take before the chase cards start appearing. Pokémon released Mega Evolution Chaos Rising on May 22, 2026, and describes the expansion as having “over 120 cards,” including Mega Greninja ex, Mega Floette ex, Mega Pyroar ex, and Mega Dragalge ex. Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates show a wide divide between Double Rares and Illustration Rares versus Special Illustration Rares and the Mega Hyper Rare. The sections below break down those odds, booster-box expectations, Mega Greninja pulls, and the difference between hitting a rarity and pulling one exact card.

  • Chaos Rising launched May 22, 2026.
  • The English checklist contains 122 cards.
  • Mega Greninja ex anchors the chase.
  • Pull-rate figures come from observed pack openings.

Chaos Rising Pull Rates

Pokemon Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates become easier to judge when collectors separate each rarity instead of treating every shiny pull as the same type of hit. A hands-on example appears when a collector opens a 36-pack display, pulls several ex cards and Illustration Rares, then finishes without an SIR, which can feel rough even though the math allows that result. TCGplayer-based data covering more than 8,500 packs produced estimates near 1 in 5 for Double Rare, 1 in 9 for Illustration Rare, 1 in 12 for Ultra Rare, 1 in 83 for Special Illustration Rare, and 1 in 956 for Mega Hyper Rare. Those figures represent sample averages rather than promised contents inside one sealed product.

  • Double Rare rate is about 20.30%.
  • Illustration Rare rate is about 10.66%.
  • Ultra Rare rate is about 8.29%.
  • SIR rate is about 1.21%.
  • MHR rate is about 0.10%.

Pull Rate Data

Collectors get more useful Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates from thousands of opened packs than from one booster box or Elite Trainer Box. The TCGplayer Authentication Center sample exceeded 8,500 packs, giving researchers enough openings to estimate common rarity tiers with more confidence, while the MHR figure remains sensitive because so few examples appear. Small openings can swing wildly, one box might feel loaded and the next can look empty by comparison, yet neither result proves that the published average is wrong. Sample size matters.

  • More than 8,500 packs were tracked.
  • Small samples create larger swings.
  • MHR estimates depend on fewer observed hits.
  • Future opening data can shift the estimates.

Double Rare Odds

Double Rares appear about once every five packs in Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates, making them the most reachable rarity discussed here. Chaos Rising contains 10 Double Rare cards, including Mega Evolution Pokémon ex, and the sample rate works out to around seven Double Rare hits per 36 packs across many displays. A collector hunting one named Double Rare faces odds closer to 1 in 49 packs under the distribution estimate reported by TCG Watchtower. Pulling any Double Rare is much easier than pulling a chosen one.

  • Estimated odds are 1 in 5 packs.
  • The tier contains 10 cards.
  • A display averages about seven Double Rares.
  • One specific Double Rare is near 1 in 49.

Illustration Rare Odds

Illustration Rares appear around once every nine packs, giving collectors a steadier art-card hit than the premium tiers. Chaos Rising contains 11 Illustration Rares, so four IR pulls across a 36-pack display would sit close to the sample expectation, though duplicates can arrive before a collector fills every binder slot. Specific-card data places one chosen IR near 1 in 103 packs. Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates therefore look generous at the rarity level while targeted collecting takes more patience.

  • Estimated rarity rate is 1 in 9.
  • Chaos Rising contains 11 IR cards.
  • Thirty-six packs average about four IRs.
  • A chosen IR is near 1 in 103 packs.
  • Duplicates can delay set completion.

Ultra Rare Odds

Ultra Rares appear at about 1 in 12 packs in the TCGplayer-based Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates. The set contains 18 Ultra Rare cards, creating a larger pool than the Illustration Rare tier, so collectors trying to pull one trainer or Pokémon may open many packs before finding the target. A 36-pack display averages around three Ultra Rare hits if results fall near the sample rate. Specific-card estimates reach roughly 1 in 217 packs.

  • Estimated odds are 1 in 12 packs.
  • The tier contains 18 cards.
  • A display averages around three UR hits.
  • One exact UR is near 1 in 217.

Chaos Rising cards

Special Illustration Odds

Special Illustration Rares mark the point where Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates become much tougher. TCGplayer’s dataset places an SIR around 1 in 83 packs, and the expansion contains six cards at that rarity, including Mega Greninja ex #116. A 36-pack booster display has only about a 35% to 36% chance of producing at least one SIR using current community calculations. One named SIR is estimated near 1 in 496 packs.

  • SIR odds are about 1 in 83.
  • The set contains six SIR cards.
  • One box has roughly a one-in-three SIR chance.
  • A specific SIR is near 1 in 496 packs.
  • No English booster box guarantees an SIR.

Mega Hyper Rare Odds

Mega Hyper Rare sits at the hardest end of Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates, with an observed rate near 1 in 956 packs. Pokémon’s official card database identifies Mega Greninja ex #122/122 as the set’s Mega Hyper Rare, and it is the only card occupying that tier. The rate translates to roughly one MHR per 26 to 27 booster boxes on average, yet an average never guarantees where the next copy will appear. A collector could open several cases without seeing one.

  • MHR odds are about 1 in 956 packs.
  • Mega Greninja ex #122 is the only MHR.
  • The average equals about 26 booster boxes.
  • A 36-pack display has around a 3.5% to 3.7% MHR chance.

Mega Greninja Pull Odds

Mega Greninja gives collectors two different premium chases, which makes card number especially useful when discussing Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates. Mega Greninja ex #116 is the Special Illustration Rare, while Mega Greninja ex #122 is the Mega Hyper Rare, and Pokémon lists #122 as a 350 HP Mega Evolution ex illustrated by takuyoa. The SIR appears around once per 480 to 510 packs when one specific card is considered, compared with roughly 1 in 956 for the MHR. The artwork may attract different buyers, but rarity data keeps the two versions separate.

  • #116 is the Special Illustration Rare.
  • #122 is the Mega Hyper Rare.
  • The SIR is easier to pull than the MHR.
  • Card numbers prevent confusion between versions.

Booster Box Odds

Pokémon confirms that a Chaos Rising booster display contains 36 packs, with 10 cards and one Basic Energy inside each pack. Applying Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates to that format suggests around seven Double Rares, four Illustration Rares, and three Ultra Rares across a long run of displays, while an SIR remains uncertain. Community calculations place the chance of at least one SIR near 35% to 36% and an MHR near 3.5% to 3.7%. Two boxes can therefore produce very different results without anything being wrong with either one.

  • Booster display contains 36 packs.
  • Each pack contains 10 cards plus Energy.
  • SIR chance is near 35% to 36%.
  • MHR chance is near 3.5% to 3.7%.
  • Box averages are not fixed collation rules.

ETB Pull Odds

The standard Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box contains nine booster packs, while Pokémon’s Center version includes 11. Nine packs provide around a 10% to 11% chance of at least one SIR under current Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates, and the MHR chance remains below 1%. A collector opening one ETB may see several hits or none from the premium tiers, so that product is too small a sample for judging the whole expansion. Pack count changes the chance of finding something, not the estimated per-pack rarity rate.

  • Standard ETB contains nine packs.
  • Pokémon Center ETB contains 11 packs.
  • Nine-pack SIR chance is about 10% to 11%.
  • Nine-pack MHR chance stays below 1%.

Specific Card Odds

Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates describe rarity frequency, but master-set collectors care about individual cards too. Current specific-card estimates sit near 1 in 49 for a Double Rare, 1 in 103 for an Illustration Rare, 1 in 217 for an Ultra Rare, 1 in 496 for a Special Illustration Rare, and 1 in 956 for the lone Mega Hyper Rare. Those figures assume cards within each rarity receive an equal share of pulls, so they should be treated as working estimates rather than factory-issued odds. Target hunting is harder than rarity hunting.

  • Specific DR: about 1 in 49
  • Specific IR: about 1 in 103
  • Specific UR: about 1 in 217
  • Specific SIR: about 1 in 496
  • Specific MHR: about 1 in 956

Chaos Rising Card Pool

The finished English checklist contains 122 cards, which gives Chaos Rising a compact pool compared with some expansions. Current set databases identify 10 Double Rares, 11 Illustration Rares, 18 Ultra Rares, six Special Illustration Rares, and one Mega Hyper Rare. A smaller pool can improve the odds of landing one named card within certain tiers, but it does not make premium rarities appear more often. Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates still govern how frequently each tier enters a pack.

  • Total checklist contains 122 cards.
  • Double Rare pool contains 10 cards.
  • Illustration Rare pool contains 11 cards.
  • SIR pool contains six cards.
  • MHR pool contains one card.

Opening Pack Strategy

Collectors can use Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates to set expectations before chasing one card through sealed products. Someone opening packs for enjoyment may value the surprise, while a collector focused on Mega Greninja #122 can compare the cost of singles against an average of hundreds of packs, because the chase can become expensive fast. The Federal Trade Commission recommends reviewing seller history, refund policies, item photographs, transaction records, and payment protections when buying products through online marketplaces. Tracking packs and hits also helps collectors compare personal results without relying on memory.

  • Set a pack budget before opening.
  • Track each rarity hit.
  • Compare singles when chasing one target.
  • Check seller records before online purchases.
  • Keep receipts and marketplace messages.

Pokemon Chaos Rising

Chaos Rising Key Takeaways

Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates create two different opening experiences inside one expansion. Double Rares, Illustration Rares, and Ultra Rares appear often enough to show up through a booster display, while SIRs become a one-in-83 chase and Mega Greninja’s Mega Hyper Rare pushes toward one in 956 packs. The 122-card checklist helps keep the individual rarity pools manageable, yet premium hits remain difficult because rarity frequency and card-pool size are separate pieces of the equation. Collectors get the clearest picture by using large-sample rates, product pack counts, and specific-card odds together.

  • Double Rare: about 1 in 5
  • Illustration Rare: about 1 in 9
  • Ultra Rare: about 1 in 12
  • SIR: about 1 in 83
  • MHR: about 1 in 956

FAQs

What Are Pull Rates?

Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates estimate how often each rarity appears across thousands of packs. They describe probability rather than guaranteed product contents. One box can land far from the average.

How Rare Are SIRs?

Special Illustration Rares appear around once every 83 packs. Chaos Rising contains six SIR cards. One named SIR is estimated near 1 in 496 packs.

How Rare Is Greninja?

Mega Greninja ex #116 is an SIR, while #122 is the set’s Mega Hyper Rare. The MHR appears around once every 956 packs in the current dataset. Its specific-card odds match the rarity because it is the only MHR.

Does Every Box SIR?

No. A 36-pack booster display has an estimated 35% to 36% chance of containing an SIR. Boxes without one are expected under the current data.

Are Pull Rates Guaranteed?

No. Chaos Rising Set Pull Rates come from observed openings rather than an official odds table published by Pokémon. Collectors should use them as a planning reference.