Pokemon collectors studying Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates usually want to know how often the chase cards can appear before boxes start piling up. Pokémon released Mega Evolution Phantasmal Flames on November 14, 2025, and its set page lists more than 120 cards, with the completed English checklist containing 130. Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates reveal a huge gap between Double Rares, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Mega Charizard X ex at the Mega Hyper Rare level. The sections below break down those odds, booster-display expectations, individual Charizard chances, and what the numbers mean for collectors opening sealed product.

Phantasmal Flames released November 14, 2025.
The English checklist contains 130 cards.
Mega Charizard X ex leads the chase.
Pull rates come from observed booster openings.

Phantasmal Flames Pull Rates

Pokemon cards Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates become easier to understand when each rarity is treated as its own event instead of grouping every hit together. A hands-on example occurs when a collector opens a 36-pack display, finds several Illustration Rares and Ultra Rares, then reaches the last pack without seeing an SIR, which may feel unlucky but still fits the math. PokéBeach reports that TCGplayer opened more than 5,000 packs and found Double Rares near 1 in 5, Illustration Rares near 1 in 9, Ultra Rares near 1 in 12, SIRs near 1 in 80, and Mega Hyper Rares near 1 in 1,260. Those numbers represent sample averages, not fixed contents.

Double Rare odds are about 1 in 5.
Illustration Rare odds are about 1 in 9.
Ultra Rare odds are about 1 in 12.
SIR odds are about 1 in 80.
MHR odds are about 1 in 1,260.

Pull Rate Sample

A 5,000-pack sample gives Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates far more meaning than results from one ETB or booster display. Random pack distribution creates streaks, so one collector might find an SIR after eight packs while another opens 100 without one, and neither experience by itself disproves the larger dataset. Pokémon does not publish an English pack-odds table for these rarity categories, which is why collectors rely on high-volume opening studies when estimating frequency.

Thousands of packs create stronger estimates.
One box is a small statistical sample.
Short opening streaks can vary sharply.
Observed rates are not manufacturer guarantees.

Double Rare Odds

Double Rares appear around once every five packs according to the Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates study. The completed checklist contains 10 cards at this rarity, including Mega Charizard X ex #13, so a 36-pack display would average roughly seven Double Rare hits across many openings. One selected Double Rare is harder to find because each successful rarity hit is divided among the cards in that pool.

Rarity estimate: 1 in 5 packs
Double Rare pool: 10 cards
Thirty-six packs average about seven hits.

Illustration Rare Odds

Illustration Rares appear about once every nine packs, giving collectors a more frequent artwork-focused hit than the premium tiers. The completed Phantasmal Flames checklist contains 13 Illustration Rares, so four IR pulls across 36 packs would land close to the long-run expectation. A collector chasing one exact card may need well over 100 packs under an equal-distribution estimate because the rarity rate must be divided across all 13 possibilities.

IR rate: about 1 in 9
The set contains 13 Illustration Rares.
A display averages around four IR pulls.
Named-card odds are much longer.

Ultra Rare Odds

Ultra Rares appear around once every 12 packs in Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates. The set contains 17 Ultra Rare cards, which means a 36-pack display averages about three hits but gives no assurance that a collector will find Mega Charizard X ex #109 or another chosen card. Duplicate pulls can slow master-set progress fast, especially once most of the easier slots have already been filled.

UR estimate: 1 in 12 packs
Ultra Rare pool: 17 cards
A display averages roughly three UR hits.
Duplicates affect completion speed.

Special Illustration Odds

Special Illustration Rares sit where Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates become much tougher, with TCGplayer’s study finding roughly one SIR every 80 packs. The set contains five SIRs, Mega Charizard X ex #125, Rotom ex #126, Mega Sharpedo ex #127, Mega Lopunny ex #128, and Dawn #129, so an equal split places one chosen card near 1 in 400 packs. A 36-pack display has only about a one-in-three mathematical chance of producing at least one SIR, meaning boxes without one are expected.

SIR rate: about 1 in 80 packs
The rarity contains five cards.
Mega Charizard X ex #125 is an SIR.
One selected SIR is near 1 in 400 under an equal split.
No English display guarantees an SIR.

Mega Hyper Rare Odds

Mega Hyper Rare is the hardest tier in Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates, appearing about once every 1,260 booster packs in the TCGplayer sample. Mega Charizard X ex #130/94 is the set’s only MHR, so reaching this rarity means pulling that card rather than selecting from a pool. PokéBeach calculates that the observed rate equals about 35 booster boxes, or close to six cases, on average, yet probability never guarantees which box contains the next copy.

MHR odds: about 1 in 1,260 packs
Mega Charizard X ex #130 is the only MHR.
The average equals about 35 booster boxes.
Several cases can still miss the card.

Mega Charizard Odds

Mega Charizard X ex appears at several rarity levels, so card number matters whenever collectors compare Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates. The set includes Mega Charizard X ex #13 as a Double Rare, #109 as an Ultra Rare, #125 as a Special Illustration Rare, and #130 as the Mega Hyper Rare. A collector saying “Charizard pull rate” could therefore mean anything from roughly 1 in 50 under a shared Double Rare estimate to about 1 in 1,260 for the gold MHR.

#13 is a Double Rare.
#109 is an Ultra Rare.
#125 is a Special Illustration Rare.
#130 is a Mega Hyper Rare.

Booster Box Odds

Pokémon confirms that a Phantasmal Flames booster display contains 36 packs, with 10 cards and one Basic Energy inside each pack. Applying Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates gives rough expectations of seven Double Rares, four Illustration Rares, three Ultra Rares, less than one SIR, and only a tiny fraction of an MHR per display. Those figures describe averages across many boxes, so one display can outperform another by a large margin without indicating a packaging problem.

Booster display: 36 packs
Expected DR hits: about seven
Expected IR hits: about four
Expected UR hits: about three
SIR and MHR pulls remain uncertain.

ETB Pull Odds

The standard Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Box contains nine booster packs, which is too small a sample for judging the set’s true rarity distribution. Using the published estimates, nine packs create a solid chance of seeing an Illustration Rare but only around an 11% mathematical chance of at least one SIR, while the Mega Hyper Rare probability remains below 1%. Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates make clear why an ETB can produce an exciting hit or finish without a premium card.

Standard ETB contains nine packs.
IR pulls are more attainable.
SIR probability stays near one chance in nine.
MHR probability remains below 1%.

Phantasmal Flames Rarities

The completed English checklist contains 130 cards, while Pokémon describes the expansion as having more than 120 cards. ScanDex lists 43 Common, 31 Uncommon, 10 Rare, 10 Double Rare, 13 Illustration Rare, 17 Ultra Rare, five Special Illustration Rare, and one Mega Hyper Rare. Pool size matters because pulling a rarity is only the first step, a collector still has to land the desired card within that group.

Total English checklist: 130 cards
Illustration Rare pool: 13
Ultra Rare pool: 17
SIR pool: 5
MHR pool: 1

Opening Pack Strategy

Collectors can use Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates to set a spending limit before a chase turns into hundreds of packs. Someone who wants Mega Charizard X ex #130 alone may find that buying the single removes the enormous variance attached to a 1-in-1,260 pull, while sealed packs still provide the fun of discovery across the rest of the set. The Federal Trade Commission advises marketplace buyers to inspect photographs, review seller history, understand refund policies, preserve transaction records, and use payment methods that include buyer protections.

Track total packs opened.
Record hits by rarity.
Compare singles when chasing one card.
Review sellers before purchasing sealed products.
Keep receipts and marketplace messages.

Phantasmal Flames Key Takeaways

Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates create two very different collecting experiences inside the same expansion. Double Rares, Illustration Rares, and Ultra Rares appear often enough to give a booster display several hits, while SIRs fall near one in 80 packs and the Mega Charizard X ex MHR stretches to roughly one in 1,260. The five-card SIR pool improves the chance of landing a chosen SIR once that rarity appears, but the gold Charizard remains a separate challenge because the MHR tier itself appears so infrequently.

Double Rare: about 1 in 5
Illustration Rare: about 1 in 9
Ultra Rare: about 1 in 12
SIR: about 1 in 80
MHR: about 1 in 1,260

FAQs

What Are Pull Rates?

Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates estimate how often each rarity appears across thousands of booster packs. They describe probability rather than fixed product contents. Larger opening samples provide a better baseline.

How Rare Are SIRs?

Special Illustration Rares appear around once every 80 packs. Phantasmal Flames contains five SIR cards. One selected SIR is roughly a 1-in-400 proposition if distribution is even.

How Rare Is Charizard?

Mega Charizard X ex #125 is the SIR, while #130 is the Mega Hyper Rare. The MHR appears around once every 1,260 packs in the TCGplayer sample. Card number determines which odds apply.

Does Every Box SIR?

No. A 36-pack display has roughly a one-in-three chance of producing an SIR using the 1-in-80 estimate. Boxes without an SIR fit the expected distribution.

Are Pull Rates Guaranteed?

No. Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates come from more than 5,000 observed TCGplayer pack openings rather than fixed rarity odds published by Pokémon. Collectors should use the figures as planning estimates.

Pokemon Phantasmal Flames Set Pull Rates