Pokemon collectors studying Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates are usually trying to answer one question before opening sealed product: how difficult is it to pull the cards people actually want? The Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution expansion released on September 26, 2025, and the official set page describes it as containing “over 180 cards,” including nearly a dozen Mega Evolution Pokémon ex. Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates show a wide gap between easier Double Rares and Illustration Rares versus Special Illustration Rares and Mega Hyper Rares. The sections below break down those estimated odds, what they mean across booster boxes, and why pulling one rarity is not the same as pulling one particular chase card.

Mega Evolution contains more than 180 cards.
The expansion launched September 26, 2025.
Pull-rate estimates come from pack-opening samples.
Mega Hyper Rares sit at the toughest rarity level.

Mega Evolution Pull Rates

Pokemon Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates become easier to understand when collectors separate overall hit frequency from individual-card probability. A common hands-on example happens when someone opens a 36-pack booster box, pulls several Double Rares and Illustration Rares, then assumes a Special Illustration Rare should appear before the box is empty. TCGplayer opened more than 5,000 packs for its estimate, with PokéBeach reporting Double Rares near 1 in 5 packs, Illustration Rares near 1 in 9, Ultra Rares around 1 in 12, Special Illustration Rares around 1 in 101, and Mega Hyper Rares around 1 in 1,260. Those figures describe averages across a substantial sample, not promised contents inside one box.

Double Rare estimate: 1 in 5 packs
Illustration Rare estimate: 1 in 9 packs
Ultra Rare estimate: 1 in 12 packs
Special Illustration Rare estimate: 1 in 101 packs
Mega Hyper Rare estimate: 1 in 1,260 packs

Pull Rate Methodology

Collectors should treat Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates as statistical estimates because The Pokémon Company does not publish a pack-by-pack odds chart for these rarity tiers. PokéBeach reported that TCGplayer opened more than 5,000 Mega Evolution packs to calculate the figures, which provides a much stronger sample than one case or a few booster boxes. Random distribution still creates streaks, so one collector may pull an SIR in ten packs while another opens 150 without seeing one. Larger samples smooth out those swings.

One booster box is a small sample.
Thousands of packs produce better estimates.
Individual openings can vary widely.
Estimated odds are not guarantees.

Double Rare Pull Rates

Double Rares appear at roughly 1 in 5 packs according to the Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates study. That works out to about seven Double Rare pulls across 36 packs if results land near the long-run average, though an actual booster display can finish above or below that figure. The Pokémon set guide notes that Mega Evolution contains ten Mega Evolution Pokémon ex rather than ordinary Pokémon ex, giving players several deck-focused cards to chase. This rarity is much easier to encounter than the showcase tiers.

Estimated rate is about 20% per pack.
A 36-pack average works out near seven pulls.
Mega Evolution Pokémon ex headline the set.

Illustration Rare Pull Rates

Illustration Rares land around 1 in 9 packs, making them one of the more accessible art-focused categories in Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates. PokéBeach reported that this improved from roughly 1 in 12 packs during many Scarlet & Violet expansions. A 36-pack opening would average about four Illustration Rares if results track the sample rate, yet that number should be viewed as a mathematical expectation rather than a box promise. Collectors chasing one chosen Illustration Rare face longer odds because the rarity contains numerous cards.

Estimated odds are 1 in 9 packs.
A 36-pack average is about four pulls.
The rate improved from many Scarlet & Violet sets.
One chosen IR is harder to hit than any IR.

Ultra Rare Pull Rates

Ultra Rares appear around 1 in 12 packs in the Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates sample. That corresponds to roughly three Ultra Rare pulls per 36 packs over a long run, though box-to-box results will wander around that average. PokéBeach reported that these cards were easier to pull than the roughly 1-in-15 rate seen in preceding Scarlet & Violet releases. Collectors completing a set still face a different challenge because repeated pulls can slow progress toward every card in the rarity.

Estimated odds are 1 in 12 packs.
Thirty-six packs average about three Ultra Rares.
Duplicates affect set completion.
Rarity odds do not predict card identity.

Special Illustration Pull Rates

Special Illustration Rares are where Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates become considerably tougher. PokéBeach reports an estimated SIR frequency of about 1 in 101 packs, meaning a collector can open several booster boxes without seeing one and still fall inside normal statistical variation. Using that rate, 36 packs have roughly a 30% mathematical chance of containing at least one SIR if packs behave as independent trials. Mega Venusaur ex #177, Mega Gardevoir ex #178, and Mega Lucario ex #179 are among the Pokémon SIR chase cards listed for the set.

Estimated rate is 1 in 101 packs.
One booster box does not guarantee an SIR.
Several Mega Pokémon appear in the SIR tier.
Specific-card odds are longer than rarity odds.

Mega Hyper Rare Odds

Mega Hyper Rares are the outlier in Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates, with TCGplayer’s sample producing an estimated rate near 1 in 1,260 packs. PokéBeach calculated that this corresponds to roughly 35 booster boxes for one MHR on average, or around six cases, which shows how extreme the chase becomes at this tier. Mega Gardevoir ex #187 and Mega Lucario ex #188 occupy the two gold Mega Hyper Rare slots in the English set list. Pulling one named MHR can be harder still because the 1-in-1,260 figure covers the rarity rather than guaranteeing which card appears.

Estimated odds are 1 in 1,260 packs.
That equals about 35 booster boxes on average.
The set contains two Mega Hyper Rare cards.
Neither gold card is guaranteed within a case.
Opening more product never guarantees one chosen MHR.

Booster Box Pull Rates

Collectors often translate Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates into booster-box expectations because an English display contains 36 packs. The published averages imply around seven Double Rares, four Illustration Rares, and three Ultra Rares per 36 packs across a large sample, while SIRs and MHRs remain much less predictable. A box has only about a 30% calculated chance of at least one SIR using the 1-in-101 estimate, and roughly a 2.8% chance of at least one MHR under the 1-in-1,260 figure. Those calculations are probability models, not packaging guarantees.

Booster displays contain 36 packs.
An SIR remains uncertain across one display.
An MHR is exceptionally unlikely in one box.
Case openings produce a more useful sample.

Secret Rare Odds

PokéBeach reported an overall secret-rare hit frequency around 19%, which can sound generous until the individual categories are separated. Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates are structured so Illustration Rares and Ultra Rares appear with much greater frequency while the SIR and MHR tiers absorb most of the difficulty. A collector can therefore have an opening with several above-numbered cards and still miss every headline chase. Looking at one combined percentage hides that distinction.

Overall reported secret-rare rate is about 19%.
The combined rate includes several categories.
SIR odds remain around 1 in 101.
MHR odds remain around 1 in 1,260.

Specific Card Odds

Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates measure rarity tiers more easily than individual-card chances. A collector who wants any Illustration Rare has far better odds than someone chasing one named Illustration Rare because the successful pulls are divided among many cards, and the same logic applies to SIRs. Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex also compete within the MHR category, so reaching the gold rarity does not guarantee the preferred Pokémon. This is why opening packs for one exact card can become expensive long before the set-level pull rate looks intimidating.

Any-card odds differ from named-card odds.
Larger rarity pools reduce targeted pull chances.
Duplicate hits can appear before a target does.
Set completion requires more than average luck.

Opening Packs Strategically

Collectors can use Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates to set expectations rather than treating them as a reason to chase losses. Pack opening works well as entertainment, while buying an individual card removes the randomness when one target matters more than the opening experience. Collectors purchasing sealed products through marketplaces can also follow Federal Trade Commission guidance by checking seller history, reviewing return rules, inspecting actual-item photos, and using payment methods with buyer protections. Keeping records also helps if an order arrives damaged or differs from the listing.

Set a pack budget before opening.
Track hits across each opening session.
Compare singles when chasing one card.
Review marketplace protections before buying sealed product.
Keep receipts and seller messages.

Mega Evolution Key Takeaways

Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates create two very different opening experiences inside the same expansion. Double Rares, Illustration Rares, and Ultra Rares appear often enough to produce regular hits, while Special Illustration Rares become a serious chase and Mega Hyper Rares sit in another statistical category altogether. The 5,000-plus-pack sample gives collectors a useful baseline, but randomness remains strong across one booster box, one Elite Trainer Box, or even several displays. Collectors get the clearest picture when they treat pull rates as averages and separate rarity odds from the chance of pulling one named card.

Double Rare rate: about 1 in 5
Illustration Rare rate: about 1 in 9
Ultra Rare rate: about 1 in 12
SIR rate: about 1 in 101
MHR rate: about 1 in 1,260

FAQs

What Are Pull Rates?

Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates estimate how frequently each rarity appeared across a large pack sample. They describe probability rather than guaranteed box contents.

How Rare Are MHRs?

Mega Hyper Rares appeared at roughly 1 in 1,260 packs in TCGplayer’s sample. That makes them the toughest standard rarity reported for the expansion.

How Rare Are SIRs?

Special Illustration Rares appeared about once per 101 packs in the reported sample. A collector can open multiple booster boxes without pulling one.

Does Every Box Hit?

No published evidence shows that every English Mega Evolution booster box contains an SIR. Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates indicate averages across thousands of packs rather than fixed box collation.

Are Pull Rates Guaranteed?

No. The reported Mega Evolution Set Pull Rates come from more than 5,000 opened packs rather than an official odds table published by The Pokémon Company.